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Tunisia in Retrospect and the Tough Choices Ahead
In one year, Tunisia has been tormented by no less than five large scale, dramatic terrorist attacks all perpetrated by the Islamic State. It all started on March 18, 2015, the day that two « lone wolves » stormed the Bardo museum of Tunis and opened fire on a group of tourists, leaving 22 dead. This attack paved the way for other lone wolves militants to leave the mountainous regions in western Tunisia where they would engage in sporadic clashes against the security forces, and focus urban and...
Sahel’s Growing Drug Trafficking Problem
Other than being a hot bed for terrorism, the Sahel is very propitious for drugs, weapons and tobacco trafficking. The United Nations suggest that in 2013 and 2014, revenue from such criminal activities reached $3.5 billion. In a region where insecurity has immensely undermined the economy, illicit trafficking has become an accessible way to earn income.
Egypt Ends 1Q16 with High Security Tension. First Quarter Review
Tension in Egypt remains high as we conclude the first quarter of 2016. The quarter is ending with at least 717 recorded incidents that have had an effect on the country’s stability. The figure suggests that while the Cincidents Index measuring the intensity of the incidents combined remained unchanged on the year-over-year basis, it settled in 1Q16 at 2.01 as indicated by the first chart below. This puts Egypt in the MEA Risk’s Extremely High-Risk Zone. Although the C-index stabilized from 1Q15, the number of incidents rose 18.5% year on year to end at at-least 717. This further highlights the proliferation of problems that may not be as severe as terrorism as such, but collectively they still impact the broad stability in Egypt. A sequential comparison suggests a rise in C-Index from 4Q15 to 1Q15, while the number of actual incidents dropped by nearly 19% sequentially.
BP and Statoil Reducing their Staffs in Algeria: Consequences on Business Continuity
Although the recent terror attempt on an Algerian gas site, signed by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) caused no physical damage, it has had without any doubt some psychological impact on jittery companies and on authorities scrambling to secure the area. Because of what came after the attack, it is fair to say that the act ended up being a victory of sort for the militant group, which apparently invested very little but generated some great ROI from a media exposure perspective and on business decision impact.
BEYOND NORTH AFRICA: REGIONS OF INTEREST
Turkey’s Wars: No End in Sight, But Beware of What’s to Come
Istiklal Avenue in the heart of Istanbul was recently hit by a suicide bomb that killed five people. This is the second attack in just a few days, following the one in Ankara that claimed some 37 victims. Among those wounded in Istanbul are a dozen foreign nationals. Many sources within the Turkish authorities quickly concluded that the perpetrators were from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). But a couple of days later, it turned out to be the work of an Islamic State member that committed the attack. Turkey is clearly facing two very difficult fronts: one that deals with its Kurdish minority, in a conflict that could turn into a protracted and wider ethnic confrontation, and expanding beyond Turkey’s territory by involving the Kurds of neighboring countries, especially those in Syria and Iraq. And then the second conflict with the Islamic State, that will likely remain a permanent threat also given the proximity of Syria and Iraq.
Opportunities and Risks of Doing Business in East Africa’s Infrastructure
East Africa is a large portion of the continent. It is strategically located between key regions, and is in itself a growing internal market. MEA Risk defines East Africa region to include 13 countries on the Eastern Coast of Africa. These are Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. And the Indian Ocean Islands of Seychelles and Mauritius. The region, which boasts an estimated population of 300 million, has posted relatively healthy economic growth over the past 20 years, creating demand for infrastructure to support further economic growth. It has such good performers as Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Rwanda which have posted a GDP growth rate above 7.00 per cent for nearly a decade. One country, Kenya has already entered the Middle income country status. Somalia is the exception, as the state of terror makes it a failed state.
http://www.North-Africa.com
Tunisia in Retrospect and the Tough Choices Ahead
In one year, Tunisia has been tormented by no less than five large scale, dramatic terrorist attacks all perpetrated by the Islamic State. It all started on March 18, 2015, the day that two « lone wolves » stormed the Bardo museum of Tunis and opened fire on a group of tourists, leaving 22 dead. This attack paved the way for other lone wolves militants to leave the mountainous regions in western Tunisia where they would engage in sporadic clashes against the security forces, and focus urban and...
Sahel’s Growing Drug Trafficking Problem
Other than being a hot bed for terrorism, the Sahel is very propitious for drugs, weapons and tobacco trafficking. The United Nations suggest that in 2013 and 2014, revenue from such criminal activities reached $3.5 billion. In a region where insecurity has immensely undermined the economy, illicit trafficking has become an accessible way to earn income.
Egypt Ends 1Q16 with High Security Tension. First Quarter Review
Tension in Egypt remains high as we conclude the first quarter of 2016. The quarter is ending with at least 717 recorded incidents that have had an effect on the country’s stability. The figure suggests that while the Cincidents Index measuring the intensity of the incidents combined remained unchanged on the year-over-year basis, it settled in 1Q16 at 2.01 as indicated by the first chart below. This puts Egypt in the MEA Risk’s Extremely High-Risk Zone. Although the C-index stabilized from 1Q15, the number of incidents rose 18.5% year on year to end at at-least 717. This further highlights the proliferation of problems that may not be as severe as terrorism as such, but collectively they still impact the broad stability in Egypt. A sequential comparison suggests a rise in C-Index from 4Q15 to 1Q15, while the number of actual incidents dropped by nearly 19% sequentially.
BP and Statoil Reducing their Staffs in Algeria: Consequences on Business Continuity
Although the recent terror attempt on an Algerian gas site, signed by Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) caused no physical damage, it has had without any doubt some psychological impact on jittery companies and on authorities scrambling to secure the area. Because of what came after the attack, it is fair to say that the act ended up being a victory of sort for the militant group, which apparently invested very little but generated some great ROI from a media exposure perspective and on business decision impact.
BEYOND NORTH AFRICA: REGIONS OF INTEREST
Turkey’s Wars: No End in Sight, But Beware of What’s to Come
Istiklal Avenue in the heart of Istanbul was recently hit by a suicide bomb that killed five people. This is the second attack in just a few days, following the one in Ankara that claimed some 37 victims. Among those wounded in Istanbul are a dozen foreign nationals. Many sources within the Turkish authorities quickly concluded that the perpetrators were from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). But a couple of days later, it turned out to be the work of an Islamic State member that committed the attack. Turkey is clearly facing two very difficult fronts: one that deals with its Kurdish minority, in a conflict that could turn into a protracted and wider ethnic confrontation, and expanding beyond Turkey’s territory by involving the Kurds of neighboring countries, especially those in Syria and Iraq. And then the second conflict with the Islamic State, that will likely remain a permanent threat also given the proximity of Syria and Iraq.
Opportunities and Risks of Doing Business in East Africa’s Infrastructure
East Africa is a large portion of the continent. It is strategically located between key regions, and is in itself a growing internal market. MEA Risk defines East Africa region to include 13 countries on the Eastern Coast of Africa. These are Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. And the Indian Ocean Islands of Seychelles and Mauritius. The region, which boasts an estimated population of 300 million, has posted relatively healthy economic growth over the past 20 years, creating demand for infrastructure to support further economic growth. It has such good performers as Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Rwanda which have posted a GDP growth rate above 7.00 per cent for nearly a decade. One country, Kenya has already entered the Middle income country status. Somalia is the exception, as the state of terror makes it a failed state.
http://www.North-Africa.com